Political Pyro

When it comes to running for President, there are five simple truths that apply time and time again:

#1 – The best time for a bold, new kind of politician to run for the presidency is after eight long years of the opposing party running the show. John F. Kennedy understood this, as did Barack Obama. In each instance, the new guy won…

#2 – Eight years of a successful presidency yields a “third term” for the incumbent. George H. W. Bush benefited from this, and both Nixon 1960 and Gore 2000 were counting on it, yet both Nixon and Gore succumbed to Simple Truth #1.

#3 – The best time to oppose the incumbent of your own party is after four years of failure. Ronald Reagan understood this when he challenged Gerald Ford in 1976, as did Ted Kennedy when he challenged Jimmy Carter in 1980. Yet, in both instances, the challenger failed to clinch the nomination from the sitting president.

#4 – When two candidates engage in a historic slugfest, neither they nor the public will have the stomach to go through it again. Al Gore understood this when he decided not to run against George W. Bush in 2004.

#5 – No candidate stands a chance when the media is working against them. Of course, we expect the left-wing mainstream media to side with the Democratic candidate and right-wing talk radio and bloggers to side with the Republican candidate, but when both sides are against you — you are doomed.

With Hillary Clinton set to accept the position of Secretary of State, many pundits are asking why she would want to surrender her “independent power” to be subordinate to Barack Obama.

The answer is simple. What the pundits fail to realize is that the Secretary of State is no more subordinate to the president than a senator is subordinate to the party.

Just ask Joe Lieberman. As an Independent who chooses to caucus with the Democrats, Lieberman’s chairmanship was on the line just a few short days ago because he had the audacity to support his good friend John McCain for president. The only reason he was absolved of any wrongdoing is because the party is closing in on the magic number 60. In short, they still need him. Had the election produced 61 Democratic senators, Lieberman would have been toast.

Most pundits believe everything the Clinton’s do is a cold calculation that serves merely as a template to get her elected to the presidency. This is probably true. Yet undermining the Obama administration — whether from the Senate floor or from the State Department — is not in Hillary’s best interest, regardless of what anyone says.

The problem with their conspiracy theory is that it works against the grain of Simple Truths #3, #4, and #5.

First of all, the mainstream media has no intention of letting their Golden Boy fail even if we’re all standing in soup lines for the next four years — everything will be George W. Bush’s fault. Anyone who attempts to undermine Obama’s legacy will fail.

Second, a failed Obama presidency will bolster Sarah Palin — not Hillary. Despite character assassination attempts by the mainstream media, Palin has four years to sharpen her claws for a 2012 run. Surely by now, Hillary recognizes Palin as a larger threat than Obama. She will not want to undermine Obama and risk empowering Palin.

Finally, with Hillary’s pet healthcare project going to Ted Kennedy, there is no good reason to stick around, and certainly a Secretary of State working in harmony with Obama — helping to grow his legacy — gets more favorable media attention than a junior senator with a grudge.

Hillary’s best chance to become the first female president was lost this year when she squandered Simple Truth #1 on poorly organized caucuses, over-confidence, and a formidable Obama machine. Her second (and final) chance is in 2016 — Simple truth #2 — with the assistance of two former presidents and an adoring left-wing media. If she uses her considerable talents to help Obama over the next eight years rather than try to undermine him — then at 68, Hillary will win.

Unless another young hotshot comes out of nowhere. Then it’s deja-vu all over again…..