Political Pyro

The fact that John McCain’s polling numbers have been in steady decline since the beginning of the financial meltdown a few weeks ago, without any serious offensive to make a comeback, leads me to believe that the McCain camp is up to something really big.

In the past, whenever McCain looked as if he were fading, his campaign under the steady leadership of Steve Schmidt would suddenly snap out of it and launch a massive attack.

In essence, the pattern of attack that McCain has consistently shown he prefers is one that was no doubt learned from five and a half years in the Hanoi Hilton: strength through the perception of weakness.

A stampede of panicked buffalo will invigorate a lioness into chase and attack mode, whereas an isolated and weakened victim will cool her down as she ponders her imminent victory. This would be the more ideal time for a counter-attack.

Either McCain’s campaign is truly foundering, or is he psychologically setting the stage for an all-out attack. I believe tonight’s vice presidential debates will provide the answer.

Here’s why:

The selection of Sarah Palin was a stroke of genius that solidified the base, inspired women, and turned on independents and the bubba vote. For two weeks, Sarah was electrifying.

Suddenly, the ball was dropped. Palin’s interviews with two liberal media icons, Charlie Gibson and Katie Couric, were loaded with “gotcha questions” that drove the governor’s approval numbers into the ground.

One of three things has occurred:

1. McCain had no idea the interviews would be unflattering. (This is unlikely).

2. McCain knew the interviews were risky, but thought Palin could hold her own. (This is the popular notion, one that implies failure, and the one I personally reject).

3. McCain set this up on purpose.

I believe the third option to be true. If it seems a bit too fantastic, consider this:

By going into the debates battered from the interviews, the bar for Governor Palin has been lowered considerably. Had her popularity remained at its zenith, not only would the bar have been too high to clear, but the avoidance of the liberal media (which would have been necessary for her to keep such high approvals) would have heated into a frenzy. The longer she dodged them, the more aggressive they would have become.

Also consider that the image of Sarah Palin now being portrayed by the media is that of a weak candidate marching to her political death at the hands of the seasoned Joe Biden. This might even have Biden in an “I’ll go easy on her” mode.

Regardless of how Sarah Palin was weakened, whether by accident or intention, tonight she has the perfect chance to strike back with a vengeance. If she goes into this thing unloading both barrels from start to finish, she will rise from the political ashes in the same tradition as John McCain. If she fails, the McCain/Palin ticket is surely going down.

We don’t have to wait until November 4th to find out who will win the election. We will have the answer tonight.