Uh-oh. Looks like the Kool-Aid is beginning to wear off. When glancing at the current polling data from the various pollmeisters, Barack Obama’s single digit leads look even thinner when taking into consideration the undecideds.
 
Let’s take Ohio for example: SurveyUSA’s last poll in June shows Obama beating McCain 48-46% for a 2% lead. Now consider that 6% are still undecided. PPP just released a poll giving Obama an 8% lead with 12% undecided. In both instances, Obama’s lead is wiped out by the undecideds with 4% to spare. We know that during the primary, the undecideds broke for Hillary. Also, Ohio picked Hillary Clinton over Obama by 10%. So subtract a little for Rush Limbaugh’s ‘Operation Chaos’, but add back for PUMAs and a little for the "Bradley Effect" just for good measure (we know all about you Appalachians) and voila! McCain takes Ohio.
 
As for Michigan, Obama’s 8% lead in Rasmussen’s latest poll seems healthy. But, when you consider that 8% is still undecided, things don’t look as good. Also, interestingly enough, the previous two polls (Quinnipiac and PPP) show Obama’s lead wiped out by the undecideds with the same 4% to spare as in Ohio. This is the year of the Democrats? Not very impressive. Also, Michigan is one of the states that screwed the voters out of the primaries. After that screw, the DNC gave them another. Voters did pick Hillary over Obama by 10% (estimated) so I think the PUMAs are going to be strong here, but there aren’t any Appalachians in Michigan (we know all about you Appalachians) so I’m not sure the "Bradley Effect" will amount to much. Throw in Mitt Romney for good measure, and Obama has a serious problem.
 
Onward to Pennsylvania! Uh-oh. Appalachia. The latest Rasmussen poll has Obama up 4% with 12% undecided. (Suuuure their undecided) If I remember correctly, Hillary stomped Obama here as well with a 3-1, 4-1, sometimes 5-1 disadvantage in spending. Apparently, Pennsylvania is not all that crazy about Obama. We shall see.
 
Even if Obama manages to take Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and Montana, the loss of any two of the above states will be a John McCain victory. Then again, with Virginia and New Jersey being a lot closer than they normally are, maybe this year will be like none we have witnessed before.